For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
Investors may have to wait a little longer for Unified Payments Interface (UPI)-based block mechanism in the secondary market even as the market regulator has set the effective launch date as January 1, 2024. Several brokerage firms said they may take a few months more to implement it. Investors will be able to register for this facility only if the stock broker has opted for the UPI block facility.
The BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices during this period have outperformed the blue-chip indices.
Shares of Reliance Industries (RIL) traded 2 per cent higher at Rs 2,310.10 on the BSE in intra-day trade in an otherwise volatile market after the company reported a 27.4 per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in its consolidated net profit at Rs 17,394 crore for the September quarter (Q2FY24). While revenue growth of the company was flattish YoY at Rs 2.32 trillion, the profit rose on the back of operational improvement across most segments, especially higher profits in the O2C (oil-to-chemicals) and oil & gas businesses, as well as the retail business. "Strong operational and financial contribution from all business segments has helped Reliance deliver another quarter of robust growth," said Mukesh Ambani, chairman and managing director of the company.
The stock market is likely to continue with its positive momentum but may face bouts of profit-booking amid lofty valuations in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said. The trading sentiment will be guided mostly by global trends in absence of major domestic events, they said. Markets would remain closed on Friday for 'Ganesh Chaturthi'.
The move is meant to curb or reverse the export of India's financial markets to overseas trading platforms.
The retail frenzy over initial public offers (IPOs) seen over the past few months is not without reason. Over the past two years, 61 companies have tapped the primary market and raised funds via IPOs. Of these, 24 companies (nearly 39 per cent companies) have more than doubled at the bourses with Happiest Minds, IndiaMart Intermesh, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC), Affle India and Route Mobile surging 468 per cent to 722 per cent since their listing date till now. Retail participation in the equity market, according to analysts, has just reached an inflection point due to the low interest rate regime amid lack of investment-worthy avenues that can generate a good return for investors.
Equity benchmark index Sensex buckled under selling pressure for the second straight session to close below the 65k mark on Friday, as investors offloaded IT, teck and metal stocks amid a bearish global trend. Besides, fresh foreign fund outflows also hit investor sentiments, traders said. In a volatile trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 202.36 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 64,948.66.
An in-line ICICI Bank result for the quarter ended March 31, 2024, has led to analysts raising target price and earnings per share (EPS) forecast on the stock. ICICI Bank, they said, appeared least vulnerable to regulatory action on its digital offerings or for risk monitoring lapses.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
Portfolio management services (PMS), catering to higher networth individuals (HNIs), are facing tough competition from emerging alternative investment funds (AIFs), evident from their dwindling client base. In May, the number of clients for the industry stood at 125,390, down 20,528 in two months, shows data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi). "PMS managers also have a high active ratio, which means their portfolios are quite differently positioned and more actively managed, compared to the benchmark, which is also a highlight for long-term investors.
The market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies jumped to a record high of Rs 2,40,04,664.28 crore on Tuesday, driven by a rally in stocks that also saw the benchmark Sensex touching its lifetime peak of 53,887.98 points. Rallying for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, the 30-share BSE index closed at a fresh closing peak of 53,823.36 points, a jump of 872.73 points or 1.65 per cent. During the day, it zoomed 937.35 points to 53,887.98 points.
Axis Bank's acquisition of Citibank's consumer finance business for Rs 12,325 crore - the second biggest deal in the Indian banking sector - is seen as a good deal at a good price. The acquisition enables Axis Bank to close the gap with competition in some key segments such as credit cards. At the same time, there are some key issues that are crucial for the deal's success, apart from the fact that it will take some time for Axis to reap the full harvest of its investment.
The RBI's policy decision would be the major event driving trading sentiment in the equity market this week, while global cues, foreign funds movement and crude oil prices will be the other key factors to watch out for, analysts said. Markets have been witnessing a rebound recently. However, the move lacks decisiveness amid lingering challenges like global policy tightening due to soaring inflation and geopolitical tensions, they added. "RBI policy, global macro numbers and crude oil prices will set the trend for this week.
Inflation data and global trends would be the major driving factors for the equity markets this week which after a record-breaking run took a breather in recent trades, analysts said. The overall market sentiment remains positive, supported by improving economic data and earnings but higher valuations can trigger bouts of profit booking, they said further. During the last week, which the 30-share BSE benchmark rose by 175.12 points or 0.30 per cent.
The domestic stock market may face volatility amid the monthly derivatives expiry scheduled this week, while investors would mainly await the outcome of RBI's interest rate decision on Friday, said analysts. Global market movement would also continue to drive sentiment amid a bearish trend recently following rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may take cues from its global counterparts to raise interest rate for the fourth time in a row to control inflation.
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A muted revenue performance in the September quarter and weak management commentary weighed on the stock of consumer major Marico which shed 8.5 per cent to Rs 542 from its intraday highs on Tuesday. The company indicated that demand trends were similar to that of the June quarter with instances of increasing food prices and below-normal rainfall distribution in some regions impeding the anticipated recovery in rural demand.
Investors should view any bounce-back in bank stocks as an opportunity to exit the pack, analysts suggested, as the worst may not be over yet. The recent quarterly results of HDFC Bank and Axis Bank disappointed the Street, triggering a marketwide selloff by foreign institutional investors, especially in banking counters. While HDFC Bank, which was the anchor for the market correction during the past week, ended 2 per cent higher amid short covering on Wednesday, Axis Bank's shares settled 3 per cent lower.
Capital markets regulator Sebi on Tuesday barred five brokerage houses for up to six months from making fresh applications seeking registration as commodity brokers as they failed to meet 'fit and proper' criteria in the NSEL case. The affected brokerage houses include India Infoline Commodities, Anand Rathi Commodities and Geofin Comtrade (banned for 6 months each), and Phillip Commodities and Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker (for 3 months each). "There were enough red flags for a reasonable person to come to conclude that what was being offered as paired contracts on NSEL were not spot contract in commodities," Sebi said in five separate orders.
Q3 revenue growth estimated at 1-3% q-o-q, currency headwinds to weigh
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From its lows in December, the stock of Tata Motors is up about 15 per cent. The gains came on the back of better than expected December volumes in its UK-based subsidiary Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). This coupled with gradual recovery in the global passenger vehicle demand, improving profitability due to product mix and lower commodity costs are expected to be key positives for the company.
Investors' wealth tumbled by over Rs 7.35 lakh crore on Friday, with the BSE benchmark Sensex plummeting 1,688 points amid a global selloff triggered by a new coronavirus variant. The 30-share index tumbled 1,687.94 points or 2.87 per cent to close at 57,107.15. During the day, it tanked 1,801.2 points or 3.06 per cent. Tracking the weak trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies slumped by Rs 7,35,781.63 crore to reach Rs 2,58,31,172.25 crore.
P&G Hygiene and Healthcare's June quarter numbers were better than Street estimates, led by strong sales and robust margins. The company, which owns leading consumer brands like Whisper, Vicks and Old Spice, posted a 12.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth in sales at Rs 852.5 crore during the quarter. The double digit sales growth, led by expansion of its distribution reach, reverses a sluggish sales graph with three of the last four quarters reporting a fall in sales.
Swift gains on Dalal Street this year have also led to a sharp surge in shares of equity market intermediaries like depositories, exchanges, and registrar and transfer Agents (RTAs). The stock prices of BSE, CDSL, CAMS, and KFin Technologies are up 24-283 per cent so far in 2023 when compared to a 9 per cent rise in the benchmark Nifty index. With the market buoyancy expected to keep up the pace, analysts believe these stocks are a good long-term bet despite the sharp rally, which can trigger an intermittent correction.
Investors remain cautious ahead of F&O expiry.
The trend in corporate earnings suggests that index earnings could fall to the levels last seen in early 2014.
Shares of Bajaj Finance sprinted 4.7 per cent to Rs 7,732 per share on the BSE in Thursday's (January 4) intra-day trade as the non-bank finance company's (NBFC's) December quarter business update reflected minimal impact of the Reserve Bank of India's ban on two of its lending products. The shares, eventually, ended 4.4 per cent higher at Rs 7,710 per share as against 0.69 per cent gain in the benchmark S&P BSE Sensex. The NBFC's asset under management (AUM) topped the Rs 3-trillion-mark at the end of December 2023, swelling by roughly Rs 20,700 crore (35 per cent year-on-year) to hit Rs 3.11 trillion-mark.
The progress of the GST Bill in Parliament is also likely to remain in focus
Re-rating of Axis Bank's stock may continue in the near-future, believe analysts, as the risk-reward on the stock remains favourable amid healthy financials. The bullish stance comes after the Mumbai-based lender delivered a strong outperformance in the March quarter of fiscal year 2023-24 (Q4FY24) on core pre-provision profit and net profit, with improving asset quality. Axis Bank's net interest margin (NIM) expanded, against expectations, even in a tough market.
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India VIX has been mirroring the CBOE Volatility Index.
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Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
Investors shunned shares of oil marketing companies (OMCs) on Friday as they feared that the government's decision to cut retail prices of petrol and diesel could hurt the companies' profit margins in the near term. On Thursday, the government announced that OMCs will reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel after a record 22 months, making them cheaper by Rs 2 per litre in the national capital. The changes were effective from Friday.
Airline stocks have been soaring following a steep decline in crude oil prices and sustained passenger traffic. Analysts have particularly turned bullish on the stocks of InterGlobe Aviation and SpiceJet. On December 20, shares of InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) hit a record high of Rs 3,009 on the BSE, having surged 43.24 per cent year-to-date (YTD).
Fund managers are withdrawing after a two-year long run in public sector bank (PSB) stocks. Domestic mutual funds (MFs) were net sellers of PSB stocks for the first time in nine quarters, offloading shares worth Rs 1,800 crore in the March quarter, said a report by ICICI Securities. In the previous eight quarters, fund houses had invested more than Rs 10,000 in PSBs amid deep discounts in valuation vis--vis their private sector peers.
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Experts say, investors will be better off exiting them at higher levels and investing in stocks of fundamentally sound companies.
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